This weekend of 14/15 March 2009 can be a turning point in the history of Pakistan. There have been a myriad rumours today where some were absolutely absurd.  There are a number of possible ways out of this chaos. I will try to have a look at some of them here. I must say at this point that unfortunately Pakistan is not the only thing that these politicians are thinking about. There is a lot at stake, mostly the political careers and power shares.

The COAS Kiyani met the President and Prime Minister in an attempt to diffuse the tension and then the Americans and British chipped in as well. What exactly was the message? To understand that we must try to figure out what exactly is the problem and who are the stakeholders?

First, and foremost, are the lawyers. They want the restoration of Chief Justice. And why not? They have struggled the most. They have been bolstered with the support of political parties and will continue to ask for their chief. So one problem is the restoration of CJP.

Next is PPP, who have a herd of corrupt personnel heading the party and the team also doing a number of frauds (similar to the famous Shaukat Aziz steel mills case). They need people who will ensure the protection of all these corrupt acts and hence comes the need for their own judiciary. They also want absolute power which is not shared by any major political force. They had most of it, and want it in Punjab too. They cannot repeal the 17th amendment because the head of their party is enjoying the superior powers.

And the third stakeholder is PML-N whose political future depends completely on the judiciary issue. They have committed so much that they cannot back out. They may settle for all other issues but not for judiciary. They would love to see CJP coming back and taking some credit for it. They would also love the government to go out soon. (Who doesnt?)

So the main issue is the restoration of Chief Justice around which resolves all other issues. Everything is interlinked in a complex fashion.

So did the Americans/British tell them to resolve the issue? How? By restoring Iftikhar Chaudhry? I doubt that because he is disliked by the West. A sustainable solution from these corridors is unlikely. What about the COAS? What message could he pass? If we still believe in Kiyani’s old words that he will not interfere in politics, the only message can be to get the chief back. Again, that is unlikely. The likely message was for the PM to sort out the mess or get ready to go. This would be a stern message, but then why doesn’t Zardari relent?