The imposition of governor rule in Punjab has prompted the factions of Muslim League to realise that this is an attempt of PPP to encroach in their territory. In fact, the PPP has already advanced in the PML zone and this act may just backfire with the unification of PML-N and PML-Q. Can this really happen? There are two important questions that need to be answered.

1. Will the Chaudhrys trust Zardari, given his recent history to break promises and his long-term animosity with them?

2. Will the Chaudhrys and Sharifs patchup?

Any one of these two WILL happen, and that will decide the future direction.

Given the fact that PML-Q has been humiliated in the elections for standing by Pervez Musharraf, there wwill be reluctance among their ranks for supporting PPP, which is widely believed to be following what is touted as Musharraf’s agenda. There have been rumours that Chaudhry Shujaat is asking for the position of Chairman Senate for himself, and the seat of CM Punjab for Moonis Elahi. Again, this may not be popular in their own party primarily because the members were earlier not happy with the leadership of Chaudhrys. And any such deal will directly affect the Chaudhry family rather than providing any benefit to the PML-Q, the party. Then comes the issue of trust. Why will PML-Q believe that PPP will not try to interfere in the politics of Punjab even if CM belongs to PML-Q. It is not a secret that Punjab is the key to rule the center and PPP will try to tighten its grip in Punjab. If a deal is struck between PPP and PML-Q agitation in Punjab will not cease.

The second, and more plausible, option is the (re)unification of PML. Or atleast, support in the assemblies. This can even lead to the overthrow of PPP’s government in center. Since Shahbaz Sharif is now disqualified to be the CM, and Nawaz disqualified to be the PM, it is clear that the future PM from PML-N will be Shahbaz Sharif (an amendment in the Constitution is unlikely in my view). Can PML (N and Q) agree on power sharing formula such that one of them gets the center while the other enjoys Punjab? Certainly possible with the increase in meetings between the members of both the parties…BUT..what about Sindh? Any such government changes will lead to agitation in Sindh! Will MQM join hands with them? They have enjoyed good relations with PML-Q but not with PML-N. Obviously they can join anyone under the banner of national interest.

The second option does look good on paper but the bigger problem is that a change in the leader of House (PM) can easily be resisted by the all-powerful President!

The situation is very complex and conflicting. PPP and PML(N and Q) have a tight hold over one province atleast. In case of any elections, I don’t see them losing grip in their stronghold. In fact, the grip will be tightened. This, sadly, means that whoever forms a government in center will have atleast one large province out of control. Punjab is important from strategic point of view in running the government, while Sindh (read Karachi) is important from economic point of view. The only way out is a harmony, trust and reconciliation. Given the history, this is next to impossible.

Pakistan Ka Khuda Hafiz