In yet another round of talks between two non-MNA’s in an attempt to decide the fate of the country, nothing surprising at all has come to light. Although there are confirmed reports that the two larger coalition partners have agreed to impeach the President, or impeach Musharraf (the person), this is not something new. Considering that these two leaders have earlier signed a declaration promising to restore the deposed judges by an agreed date, this current decision of impeachment is not really something to be trusted.

The parties are flexing their muscles against the Musharraf but we all are aware of the support that the President enjoys from the corridors of power.

Impeaching the President is not a piece of cake. We do know that all these coalition partners have openly come out against the President earlier as well, but nothing substantial has been done against him after the elections even when Musharraf was at his weakest.

In fact, impeachment is so difficult that I don’t think these coalition partners will be able to do it anytime soon. One reason is that the very fact that the most important man currently in Pakistan, Asif Zardari, was pardoned by Musharraf (as President) as part of a deal which was culminated in the form of NRO. This deal had the backing of United States and influencial personalities in the UAE served as the guarantors. In case this deal is revoked, the first person heading to jail will be Zardari himself. To impeach Musharraf, Zardari will need the backing of these people first who helped him attain his freedom through NRO.

The case for Nawaz Sharif is different. He is adamant to get rid of Musharraf, more so to avenge the coup of 1999. There are personal issues involved at large.

We should also be aware of the fact the President holds the power of 58-2(b) to dissolve the Parliament, although the space to use this option is limited in the current situation. The President also enjoys a friendly Supreme Court and the backing of Pakistan Army and probably that of ISI (in favor of PPP).

An extremely important aspect to be considered is that if at all the coalition gets rid of Musharraf, who will be the next President? Zardari has claimed earlier that a PPP member will hold the office (and he will be from Sindh, he said). Whereas, PML-N wouldn’t like PPP to get that absolute share in power or having a situation analogous to that in Punjab where they detest Salman Taseer. Deciding the future officebearer for the President House will be much wiser to avoid another chaos, if they get to that stage.

In short, the chances of impeachment are extremely slim.